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The 2024 Russian presidential election will take place in March 2024. In accordance with electoral law, the first round will be held on Sunday 17 March 2024. If in the first round no candidate attains an absolute majority of the votes (more than half), then according to the law a second round will take place exactly three weeks later on 7 April 2024.
The term limit established by Article 81 of the Russian Constitution prevents incumbent president Vladimir Putin from being elected to a new term. The 2024 election will determine the fifth President of Russia. The winner of the election is scheduled to be inaugurated on 7 May 2024.
Ineligibility of Vladimir Putin
Vladimir Putin, the incumbent president, whose second term expires on May 7, 2024
According to point 3 of article 81 of the Constitution of Russia, the same person can not hold a position of the President of the Russian Federation more than two terms in a row. This means that Vladimir Putin, who was elected president in 2012 and re-elected in 2018, will not be able to participate in the 2024 presidential election, although some experts suggest that Putin may remain in power after 2024. Putin denied the possibility of his participation in the 2030 election when answering this question of a journalist on 18 March 2018. On 25 May 2018, answering a journalist's question during the SPIEF, Putin said that he was not going to hold the post of president for more than two consecutive terms.
The 2024 problem is connected with end of Putin's presidential powers in 2024.
According to Gallup International opinion poll conducted in December 2017, if Putin was not to be on the ballot, 46% would not have known for whom to vote and 19% would have made the ballot paper invalid. Valery Fedorov said that the Russian population does not think about this problem, while the focus group participants gathered by the Levada Center identified two main scenarios for its solution: preservation of presidential powers by Vladimir Putin and the appointment of a successor.
According to Ekaterina Schulmann, a wide elite pact is being sought, the alternative to which is the war of all against all. According to Oleg Chernozub, the Russian elite is able to find ways to solve this problem, for example, Valery Zorkin proposed changing the constitution,Vyacheslav Volodin proposed expanding the powers of the parliament.
In general, there are several scenarios for the development of events in the political field of Russia in 2024:
Competitive free elections
One of the least likely scenarios is when the next president after Putin will be determined as a result of an open political process.
In connection with the alleged transit of power, questions arise - will a successor be able to protect Putin in the same way that Putin protected Yeltsin? Will it be possible to change the president without serious destabilization and internal struggle? And most importantly - can the system built by Putin function without Putin?
Another possible way for Putin to retain power after 2024 called a possible amendment to the Constitution, removing the limitation of the terms of presidency in order for Putin to run for president in 2024. However, Putin said he was not going to change the Constitution in an interview with Megyn Kelly in March 2018.
A scenario in which restrictions that prevent Vladimir Putin from remaining as president of the Russian Federation will be lifted.Sergei Markov says that Putin's repeated statements that there will be no abolition of terms of office have led discussion of possible scenarios for 2024 to a standstill. Even banding together with Belarus is being discussed.
Putin retain power not as president
In particular, it is assumed that Putin may take another position in 2024 as it was from 2008 to 2012 and again run for President in 2030. On 23 March 2018, Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov also said that Putin is not going to change the Constitution and if there will be any constitutional reform, it will not concern presidential powers.
According to political analyst Kirill Rogov, the constitutional design of Russian statehood remains unclear due to the unsuccessful experience of the "tandem" and the lack of institutions of distributed power. In addition to the obvious conflict between Putin's political regime and the official state system, the problem is also the impossibility for Putin to guarantee security for himself and his family if he leaves office completely. However, poor health can encourage him to leave.
Individuals who have publicly expressed interest
Individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for president.